Skip to main content

About this Show

Closing Bell

News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day. New. (CC) (Stereo)

NETWORK

DURATION
01:00:00

RATING

SCANNED IN
San Francisco, CA, USA

SOURCE
Comcast Cable

TUNER
Virtual Ch. 58 (CNBC)

VIDEO CODEC
mpeg2video

AUDIO CODEC
ac3

PIXEL WIDTH
528

PIXEL HEIGHT
480

TOPIC FREQUENCY

U.s. 13, Us 12, Europe 12, Spain 10, China 7, John Thain 6, U.n. 5, Netanyahu 5, Bob 5, S&p 4, Charles Schwab 4, Facebook 2, John 2, Iran 2, Ben Bernanke 2, Cit 2, Cnbc 2, Hong Kong 2, Obama 2, America 2,
Borrow a DVD
of this show
  CNBC    Closing Bell    News/Business. Maria Bartiromo, Bill Griffeth. A guide  
   through the most important hour of the Wall Street trading day....  

    September 27, 2012
    3:00 - 4:00pm EDT  

3:00pm
stock market. even gdp report this morning, they revised it lower. that did little to cool things off. we've had a good rally led by energy for most of this day. >> is the latest gdp report a major red flag that investors should not ignore? we'll be talking with the st. louis federal reserve. that's an exclusive interview later this hour. also, don't miss my exclusive with john thain in the next hour. let's look at where we stand as we enter the final stretch. as i mentioned, the market had been up about 100 points earlier. we're very shy of the highs of the day. financials doing well. bank of america one of those dow components. jpmorgan as well. check the s&p 500. here's a look. again, that is the highest of the day. just shy of it, actually. up 14.5 points. better than 1%. we mentioned that gdp data.
3:01pm
let's not forget we also had a dismal report on durable goods orders, once again showing weakness in this economy. investors not worried about these numbers today. >> we got decent news out of europe and china this morning. either way, we're asking if investors should think twice before buying into this kind of a rally based on what the u.s. economy is telling us right now. let's talk about it in today's "closing bell" exchange. we have larry blazer from mayflower advisers and our own rick santelli and mandy drury. larry glazer, you happen to believe that economically there's an iceberg dead ahead. this market doesn't act like it today. >> no, it doesn't. you can see today investors are so focused on the global stimlouse story that they're missing the big picture. the big picture is the fact that the economic data, particularly global manufacturing data, is absolutely rolling over. look at chinese manufacturing,
3:02pm
down 11 months in a row. you hit the nail on the head. gdp, durable goods, all a sign of weakness. the problem is the catalysts are behind us and the icebergs are ahead. you've got the fiscal live, all these things looking at us for those reasons. it's likely investors have seen the highs for 2012 in the domestic equity markets already. >> where are you on this, david? i know you think things are improving, but the fundamental data doesn't show it. >> i think it's always -- it's time to take advantage of the fact that people are concerned, are nervous, are fearful of this fiscal cliff and take advantage of buying things that have been beaten up and that are weaker today. so i think this is a time to take advantage of opportunities, not to get out. >> where would you buy then? >> i love buying stocks that are, actually, believe it or not, in europe. i like the stress situations. i like to go where less people are focusing. there are a whole host of companies going through
3:03pm
restructurings and transformations. i'm not actually betting on europe. i'm betting on companies. >> and you like to ride the fastest roller coasters at the fair. i can tell. >> i want to get on the roller costar at the bottom and let it take me up. >> mandy, you have this sort of negativity coming out of europe. yet, a lot of people feel like they're throwing the baby out with the bath water, that there are opportunity when is you look at the industrial side of europe away from financials. >> yeah, and it's a good point you raised about europe. it's quite incredible. we were already positive during the two to three hour. we really started to get that kick up when we started to get headlines out of spain with regards to their budget and an economic timeline. of course, whether or not they're going to stick to it is a whole other question. our market is ridiculously hanging on every single headline that comes out of europe rightly or wrongly. i want to make a point about the economic data. i wonder how many of the qe-3 critics are starting to be silent. i know there are pros and cons, but when you look at durable goods data, i would imagine some
3:04pm
of the people calling for qe-33 would start to feel a little vindicated. it's an interesting dynamic. >> i'd love to hear rick santelli's thought on that. >> me too. >> it's pretty easy. the economy obviously isn't moving on fundamentals. so woe be to all the people buying it that continue to play the ponzi scheme to buy it. i haven't advocated selling it. anybody that said, oh, gosh, i could have bought it at that price, they were right. all these people avoiding the fundamentals, when the day of reckoning comes, i don't think they're going to be able to dance between the rain drops. >> and all this fed easing globally really has this idea that you want to be putting your money into hard assets, things like oil, things like gold, even real estate. larry, where are you on that in terms of asset allocation today? if you don't like stocks, do you want to be buying commodities?
3:05pm
>> there are opportunities in the equity markets. the other guests talk about european equities. you want to buy what china buys. in this case, they have all the metals they need. they're going to be buying european assets. they're going to support their biggest trading partner. when your biggest trading partner gets in trouble, what do you do? you throw them a lifeline. things are so bad in europe china is going to keep them afloat. that's much more critical to china's well-being. look overseas. look in europe. >> all right, folks. thank you all for joining us. your thoughts get us started on "closing bell" for this thursday. thanks for being with us today. and we are just getting started with about 50 minutes left in the trading session here. the dow is off the highs, as you mentioned. up 100 points. now an 85-point gain. >> don't go anywhere. we have a huge show ahead on the "closing bell." stay with us. the middle east on the brink. iz really's prime minister
3:06pm
delivering an ultimatum for tooirn halt nuclear ambitions. will this send oil prices sky high? plus, growing pains. weaker than expected second quarter gdp casting other cloud over wall street. next, why the central bank's latest stimulus won't do anything to boost growth. and is cit group ceo john thain trying to dress up his company to attract a buyer? he joins us exclusively at 4:00 p.m. at optionsxpress we're all about options trading. we create easy-to-use, powerful trading tools for all. look at these streaming charts! they're totally customizable and they let you visualize what might happen next. that's genius! we knew you needed a platform that could really help you elevate your trading. so we built it. chances of making this? it's a lot easier to find out if a trade is potentially profitable. just use our trade & probability calculator and there it is. for all the reasons you trade options -
3:07pm
from income to risk management to diversification - you'll have the tools to get it done. strategies. chains. positions. we put 'em all on one screen! could we make placing a trade any easier? mmmm...could we? around here, options are everything. yes mom, i'll place a long call to you tomorrow. i promise. open an account today and get a free 13-month eibd™ subscription when you call 1-888-280-0154 now. optionsxpress by charles schwab.
3:08pm
3:09pm
welcome back. pretty good move for oil prices today. popping after touching eight-week lows. the mideast and pressures about iran's nuclear ambitions are part of the equation. over to sharon now. >> traders have been watching carefully the rhetoric coming out of the u.n. general assembly, and this afternoon it was israeli prime minister netanyahu talking about the fact there needs to be a clear red line drawn in terms of iran's nuclear ambitions and the
3:10pm
standoff that's right now between iran and the west. that, of course, definitely helped to spend oil prices above $91 a barrel. we're looking at crude prices that topped $112 a barrel. we're also looking at geo political tensions that spread the two contracts to levels we haven't seen in several months. back to you. >> all right, sharon. thank you. she mentioned some of the move in oil today stemming from the tensions about iran's nuclear program. here's what israeli prime minister netanyahu told the u.n. less than an hour ago. listen. >> ladies and gentlemen, the relevant question is not when iran will get the bomb. the relevant question is, at what stage can we no longer stop iran from getting the bomb? >> well, it's tough talk with implications for oil, of course. the global economy, naturally. john killduff is a cnbc
3:11pm
contributor. david foon is part of the fastest growing jewish newspaper in the united states. gentlemen, how big of a factor is this tension between iran and israel factored into the price of oil? >> there's no question that today's run-up, marimaria, was direct reaction. we got a leak of some of the speech earlier before the market opened that, in fact, prime minister netanyahu was going to state what this red line was going to be all about. now we know. of course, it comes on the heels of ahmadinejad's speech yesterday. this got right back in the forefront of the traders and the markets' mind here. what it represents, of course, for oil is, you know, the mother of all supply risks here. the strait of hormuz comes into play. the whole region comes into play. obviously, it's almost a mild reaction given what we got here today. we're clearly on a path to something, some confully grags. i do say given that netanyahu says they won't get to that final stage until next summer,
3:12pm
we have some time. >> david, what did you think of the red line speech? netanyahu has pressed for this before. the u.s. is reluctant to do so. red lines have been drawn in the past, and they've drifted and not been effective. so why would we think they would be effective this time? >> what i think we have here really is a major disagreement between prime minister netanyahu and president obama as to how to prevent the need for a strike on iran. obama's strategy seems to be based on some sort of wishful thinking, whereas netanyahu's is kind of more built upon historical context and what has prochb to proven to be a success in the past. the only time we've ever seen iran suspend their nuclear program was back in 2003 when the threat of credible military action was real. what netanyahu is coming out and saying today is we better make that real. otherwise, you know, it's going to hit us where we least expect it. >> so, john, what do you think an israeli strike on iran would do to the price of oil and the
3:13pm
markets? i mean, obviously this has much broader implications for the world and people's lives, but taking a look at the oil markets, how destabilizing would that be? >> you know, it will depend, maria, on what the strike looks like, to be straight here. a pinprick type of operation like they did in syria and iraq years ago would certainly spike the price of oil. you're going to go right to that 2008 $150 high. maybe even higher. but do we stay there? that's the question. we could come back down rapidly. to the extent there's destabilization, to the extent the iranian's mine the strait of hormuz, make other regional attacks, launch proxy battles, then it's off to the races in terms of a $200-plus barrel per oil because, like i said, the strait of hormuz gets shut down, i don't care if it's shut down for 15 minutes, once that headline hits the tape, it's over. >> david, obviously the markets
3:14pm
try to handicap the possibility of a strike on a daily basis, an hourly basis. what are you hearing? can it be averted, or is it something that -- in whatever form it takes, whether it's the strike john referred to or something bigger, is it inevitable, do you think? >> you know, i think that the prime minister is confident that, you know, if the threat of credible military action becomes more significant, and frankly that will depend on the position president obama takes. i think it is crucial for president obama to take the position that netanyahu is saying and really make sure that the iranians believe that they're in trouble, which is historically the only way they've been able to prevent it. interestingly, when you talk about the price of oil, and i think this is an important component, the obama strategy seems to be, you know, keep it on the low down, on the down low, until the final moment, which i'm not an economic expert, but it seems to me that
3:15pm
kind of strategy would result in a sudden spike when action had to be taken as opposed to the netanyahu strategy, which is to kind of steadily build up towards a point where action needs to be taken, if it boils down to that. and we've seen the markets are climbing, you know, but it's kind of at a rate where people are able to keep up with it as opposed to that sudden spike, which comes out of nowhere and nobody's expecting it and crippling markets instantaneously. >> we certainly hope that doesn't happen. thank you both for your thoughts on that. very important. >> you know, i just want to mention, i'm just coming back from the u.n. talking about all of these situations. there was a theme at the u.n. this week about creating a quartet of middle eastern countries that will oversee iran and these nuclear capabilities. one of my associates said that's completely off the table. my question is what did these guys accomplish the last two weeks? leaders from all around the world coming together at the u.n. for the general assembly, and we're still talking about the same issue. >> that's the message that
3:16pm
netanyahu has right now. diplomacy, it's still under way, but it's not working to this point. you have to have other possibilities. that red line is the possibility he wants to see. >> meanwhile, investors focusing on the central bank easing around the world. another rally. rocking and rolling here with an 81-point rally in the dow. >> meanwhile, two technology companies with lots of questions surrounding their business model. we'll tell you which may be the better stock to own. is it yahoo! or facebook? then, what should policy be tied to? we'll find out. >> and all you bachelors out there, pay close attention. i love this story. one of hong kong's richest men is offering $65 million to any man who will marry his daughter. but there's a major catch in that story, which we will tell you. you should see the look on ma a maria's face. coming up. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac
3:17pm
3:18pm
to provide a better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha!
3:19pm
welcome back. stocks are higher as we approach this final stretch on wall street. let's look at where we stand. the dow sitting at 13,495. technology doing well. certainly the energy stox higher on the heels of a big move up in the price of oil. s&p 500 up 14 points. bill, over to you. >> all right. as we all know, two internet related stocks are getting a lot of attention lately. they're facebook and yahoo!.
3:20pm
if you're looking to buy either one of these, the choice hasn't been clear recently. since facebook came public, it has tanked 46%. in the same time frame, yahoo! has rallied. facebook is getting hit in part by concerns of the ceo to turn profits. yahoo! getting a lift with its new ceo. but is either a buy? that's what we want to talk about. on the technical side, it's rich ross. on the fundamental side, zachary carabell. let's remind viewers, cnbc and yahoo! have a business alliance to share and coproduce editorial content. zach, what do you think? high hopes about marissa mayer's ability to turn things around? >> yahoo! has close to 14,000 employees and revenue somewhere
3:21pm
in the 300,000 dollar per employee metric. for facebook, everything that's been poured over its head, it's still making more than $1 million plus per employee. that just means even though yahoo! has a user base and billions of dollars in annual revenue, it is on a long, multiyear downward trajectory. i imagine marissa is likely to turn it around as anyone, but it's a lumbering chip that may be hard to navigate. >> he sounds skeptical, rich. what do you think? who do you like better here? >> clearly there's reason for skepticism. yahoo! is a stock that's been disappointing investors for almost 15 years now. as the economist james smith once said, don't call it a comeback, i've been here for yooe years. if our view is correct, that's exactly what you're going to get out of yahoo!. you can see this multiyear
3:22pm
trading range that's developed. got around 11 on the low end into resistance at 19. key failures here over the last two years. within the context of that longer term range, we have a smaller one-year trading range, even tighter. what this tells technicians is the stock is actually coiling for a big move. if our view is correct, that big move takes us higher. this is nearly a $3 trading range with projected upside to $20. >> you think it would go higher from here. what about facebook? >> facebook, that's another story. on a month to date basis, the stock is up 15%. as you mentioned, still down 45% on a year to date basis. nothing to cheer about. now that the stock's almost five months old, we see our first signs of the classic textbook potential head and shoulders reversal. now, i say potential because until we take out that key resistance up around 23.50, 24, it's really nothing. we've pulled back to that 20-day moving average forming your right shoulder. as i said, nothing to get too excited about. i don't see it happening.
3:23pm
i'm still a seller of the stock. look for a decisive break below the 20 day. >> all right. that's all the time we have, gentlemen. thank you for your thoughts today on facebook and yahoo!. maria. >> thanks bill. 35 minutes before the closing bell sounds. the dow up 85 points. nasdaq also doing well, 42 points higher. then agree to disagree with ben bernanke. james bullard with us saying the central bank's latest stimulus program may have been a mistake. he'll explain next. plus, spending twice your annual income sounds like financial suicide, right? what if i told you that's exactly what many of the lower earnings of america are doing now? stay with us. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer.
3:24pm
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade at charles schwab for $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up to tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 6 months commission-free online equity trading tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with a $50,000 deposit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5412. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here.
3:25pm
hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.
3:26pm
welcome back. my next guest says the federal reserve's moves are a mitigating disaster. joining me is the st. louis federal reserve president james bullard. thank you so much for joining us. >> hi, maria. great to see you.
3:27pm
>> so you were against further stimulus by the fed. you've talked about that many times. why so negative on this further stimulus? what impact do you see this continuance of bond buying having on the economy? what are your concerns? >> on the timing of the decision, i didn't it really think the committee had a good case for taking a really big action right at this juncture. however, as you know, i'm not really, you know, constantly opposed to taking easier actions. i just didn't think we had the case right at this meeting. i would have kept it in our pocket for a little bit and really see if the global slow down is going to impinge on the u.s. economy and what the next steps in europe are going to be. we've seen that heating up in the last couple days. i would have liked to have taken more of a wait and see posture about this and then go forward from there. on the actual action -- >> go ahead. >> okay.
3:28pm
on the actual action, i thought the committee did something i wanted to do a long time ago, as long ago as 2009 and 2010, which is do this meeting by meeting approach on balance sheet policies. so we've committed to buy a certain amount in between the meeting and then review the decision at the next meeting. the presumption is continuation value from that point on, but i think this is a better approach to policy. it's more the analog of interest rate policy where we would take a 25 or 50 basis point move and make a decision at the next meeting. markets immediately will project out based on what they think is going to happen in the economy, what our future policy will be. i think that's a better way to conduct policy and something i've been advocating for a long time. >> i guess rather than being completely wide open and open ended, which is where we find
3:29pm
ousts tod ourselves today. the second quarter gdp revised downward today. it went to 1.3%. obviously an anemic story. what would you like to see out of policy, not necessarily monetary policy, but perhaps fiscal policy that actually will move the needle in terms of growth in this economy? >> well, i'd like to see a deal on fiscal policy that would put the house in order for the u.s. i don't know if that's just around the corner or what, but that's definitely what i'd like to see. i think the second quarter gdp number was weak, but we kind of already knew that the second quarter was slower than the first. i do think we're still on track for 2% growth in the second half of the year and a little bit faster next year. i also think that unemployment will continue to tick down here through the end of the year as it did in the last jobs report. >> but to you think things have worsened the last couple months?
3:30pm
>> well, worsened in what respect? >> in terms of growth in the economy. has the economy worsened? job creation. >> no -- well, i think that, you know, as far as gdp, if you go off that, i think gdp will be higher in the second half of the year than it was in the second quarter. there has been a pattern in the last couple of years where the first half was weaker than the second half. we'll have to see if that kind of pattern persists. we do have this global slow down going on, and that is concerning. europe is in recession. asia has slowed down. global growth is slower than most people anticipated at the beginning of the year. the question i think for the u.s. is twofold. it would be that the u.s. is a winner in that game where we get the flight to safety, lower interest rates here and we do well through that. or it could be that global growth drags down the u.s. and
3:31pm
sends us into a slower growth environment or even recession. so i think we want to look at both of those possibilities. i would have wanted to see more data on that and see how that's unfolding before we took action. >> i'm really glad you brought up the fiscal deal. we've been talking about this so much on this program, this fiscal cliff. many economists expecting we'll dip back into a recession in 2013 buecause we'll go over the fiscal cliff. obviously no deal before the election. it's a 2013 affair. is that where you stand with the economy, dip back into a recession given where we are with this fiscal cliff? >> well, the cbo's estimates seem to suggest that. if it was just a no deal all around, gdp would decline in the first part of next year. i continue to think that despite all the brinksmanship, there will eventually be some kind of
3:32pm
deal. obviously it won't be what everybody wants. it will have to be some kind of compromise. it might be hard to see it right now. but i think there will be some kind of deal. what's bad for the u.s. economy is that our political system insists on brinksmanship in order to solve these kinds of problems. it would be much better if we could get a better method of getti getting to these kinds of solutions. i don't see it now. >> yeah, let me get your take in terms of where we go from here. a lot of people are worried about the fed stimulus, the way you have been, because they say at some point rates will skyrocket. at some point, you get a spike in rates and then it's just too late because it happens fast and furious. when would you expect that? >> well, unfortunately we can't know exactly when that point would occur, but it is a big concern for me and really i think anybody who's involved with monetary policy that you might face a situation where inflation expectations start to
3:33pm
get out of control and the rates start to go up quickly and you do get into a crisy situation. we have seen it recently with countries like italy and spain. we should not be complacent about this possibility. my colleague has emphasized this, and i would encourage my colleagues to not get complacent on this dimension. >> so former national economic council director larry lindsay was on today. he had a bit to say about the fed. i'd like you to listen to this and get your reaction. >> it's always been the bond market that created the crisis and said you're going to change your ways. >> but $85 billion a month fed purchas purchases. they're buying the entire deficit. >> do you think he's right? >> it's an important thing.
3:34pm
you don't want to get into what we call the fiscal dominant regime where the fiscal authority or the congress and the president, they're borrowing a lot of money and the fed's role is to keep the interest rates low. that will end in tears. that is a bad policy. i'm fairly certain that none of my colleagues on the fomc are interested in going that direction. we're going to pursue monetary policy that is the right one for the nation, but it's not one that's trying to enable irresponsible fiscal policy. >> what are you hearing from business managers out there today? one of your colleagues said many times business managers are holding back from spending because of the uncertainty. they don't know what tax rates are going to be next year. do you agree with that? >> yeah, there's no question. my business contacts say the same thing here around the eighth district. the uncertainty around the
3:35pm
future tax situation is serious. the uncertainty around the future of the u.s. economy is a serious damper on investment. i think uncertainty about health care and how that's going to impact businesses is another issue, so they often say they can't get enough clarity to know, you know, whether they should make a major investment. so you're talking about businesses where, you know, they might be committing hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. they need to get clarity to really pencil in how they think they're going to be able to profit from that kind of an investment in the u.s. >> so real quick -- >> having a hard time seeing that right now. >> what would be the most important policy you could see that would move the needle and get businesses to hire again? what's the most important policy from your standpoint right now? >> i think it would be best to, you know, get the taxes down on
3:36pm
the table the way we want them and if the u.s. could show that -- the congress could show they have consensus, even if it's -- maybe not the completely ideal policy, but they had consensus and you knew what the taxes were going to be in the future, then businesses will go ahead and make their bets based on that tax code. what they don't like is the notion they might invest in a business, the business might do well, possibly become a target and get taxed in the future. they don't want to be in that kind of a situation. so i think that that's inhibiting investment. i'll say one other thing about this topic, which is on the tech side, you see quite a bit of action. in tech, people just can't wait. they have all the same uncertainty, but the technology is moving so quickly they have to go ahead and make the investment. in other sectors of the economy,
3:37pm
they're willing to be more patient and have the opportunity to be more patient and maybe more opportunity to invest overseas. so those are all factors that are weighing on these kinds of big investment decisions. >> mr. bullard, good to have you on the program. thank you for your insights. >> all right. thanks a lot, maria. >> see you soon. we're in the final stretch of trading for the day. the dow up 86 points for the day. >> even despite the markets kind of shrugging off the sluggish growth we got this morning. the gdp revised downward, and we got a rl rally today. should you shrug it off? and he's been hiding from the spotlight lately. >> he's not. he was just here. >> john thain trying to make a splash on wall street by selling his firm cit. that's been out there. we're going to ask him about that as well as what the middle market lending story looks like right now. john thain, chairman and ceo of cit is with us in the next hour. well, if it isn't mr. margin.
3:38pm
mr. margin? don't be modest, bob. you found a better way to pack a bowling ball. that was ups. and who called ups? you did, bob. i just asked a question. it takes a long time to pack a bowling ball. the last guy pitched more ball packers. but you... you consulted ups. you found a better way. that's logistics. that's margin. find out what else ups knows. i'll do that. you're on a roll. that's funny. i wasn't being funny, bob. i know.
3:39pm
♪ [ male announcer ] introducing a stunning work of technology. introducing the entirely new lexus es. and the first-ever es hybrid. this is pursuite first-ever es hybrid. of perfection. for many, nexium helps relieve heartburn symptoms
3:40pm
caused by acid reflux disease. osteoporosis-related bone fractures and low magnesium levels have been seen with nexium. possible side effects include headache, diarrhea, and abdominal pain. other serious stomach conditions may still exist. talk to your doctor about nexium. so the dow is up solidly. up more than 80 points with about 20 minutes of trading right now. depending on tomorrow's action, listen to this, this is a great statistic. the dow right now is on track to
3:41pm
be positive for this month. if that's the case, it would be up for 11 out of the last 12 months. the last time that happened was 1959. >> wow. >> it's been that long. >> and usually september is a terrible month. >> right. it looks like it's going to be positive. >> is there a disconnect between the flailing economy and the rocketing stock market? minutes ago i asked the st. louis federal reserve president about the weak numbers. like so many others, he brought it back to the fiscal cliff. >> i'd like to see a deal on fiscal policy that would put the house in hororder for the u.s. i don't know if that's just around the corner or what, but that's definitely what i'd like to see. i think the second quarter gdp number was weak, but we kind of already knew that the second quarter was slower than the first. i do think that we're still on track for 2% growth in the second half of the year. >> woo-hoo, 2%.
3:42pm
let's bring our guests in for today. bob is joining us just back from his tour of spain. peter, what about this market and the disconnect that seems to exist. we have a downgrade of gdp for the second quarter and we're up 88 points. >> it's not uncommon to see a backward looking number like gdp miss and see the markets rally. i think people really did expect that. however, a lot of the other data also came in very weak today. if you looked at durables, even if you stripped out defense and transportation, it was still a very weak number. that was the third down month in a row we had seen on that. that's not a good sign. >> so are things worsening? >> in my view, they are. the employment situation is as bad as it was in 2009. i like the employment to population ratio. that has only moved one-tenth of a percent higher since its worst print in 2009. >> yet, you don't want to get in
3:43pm
front of this train that is the stock market with the central bank easing. >> i would disagree with that. don't fight the fed. you should be fighting the fed at this point. i look at double-digit returns. you don't get double-digit returns every day when you have these kinds of structural head winds ahead of you. we've been very actively doing what we can control, which is trimming portfolios into these rallies, taking risk off the table all year long. so when you say don't fight the fed, that's really a short-term phenomenon. >> really? >> to me it's a great opportunity. >> i don't know if ben bernanke -- he makes it sound like it's going to last for a while. you don't think it will? >> i don't think it will. >> you want to sell into it? >> what i've been doing all year. it gives us an opportunity to invest in a variety of other ways. >> bob, it's clear this market has its eye on europe, primarily spain right now. that's when our market really started to take off.
3:44pm
>> look what's happened this week, bill. if we're not enthralled with spain, i don't know. disappointing gdp numbers, disappointing new home sales numbers, disappointing durable goods numbers. on tuesday they worry about spain, big drop in the market. today, the market rallied 100 points because spain presented a budget that had a few more spending cuts than people anticipated. i'm not kidding. that's why the market rallied about 1150. that's pretty obvious and a clear indication we're enthra enthralled with what's going on in spain. i agree the markets are distorted because of the central banks. >> are you excited about those spending cuts in spain, peter? >> i have an expression. when things make this little sense, there will be a reversion to sensibility at some point. has come so slowly. the fed trade has lasted so much longer than most have thought that there's still a beta chase on. i'm seeing -- >> what's a beta chase? is what are you talking about? >> chasing growth. >> they're chasing the market.
3:45pm
investors were positioned very lightly going into ecb and fed. the past two announcements felt underinvested. when the market broke 1400, everybody felt they to jump on the train. >> chasing the market doesn't sound like a bad idea. the s&p has been up 12% this year. nobody else has been up 12%. >> it hasn't been a bad idea. that's for sure. you have these large pools of money that have to catch up because they've underperformed. you're on the other side of that train. what do you think is the leading sector you really see as vulnerable? >> we're not focused on different sectors. we're focused on different asset classes. i still think that risk of falling even further is there, given what's going on. i think there are plenty of opportunities all over the world. where you want to be is overweight u.s. large-gap equities. people want to invest where
3:46pm
there's leadership. there's leadership around the world. i want to allocate capital where there are strong leaders. >> very good. thank you, guys. >> appreciate it. >> bob, can't wait to see your powerpoint slides from spain. all right. heading toward the close. about 15 minutes left. the dow losing altitude. up 70 points right now. >> you won't believe this next story. a billionaire is offering $65 million to any man who can win his daughter's hand in marriage. but this may be one of the hardest deals ever to collect on. we'll tell you why next. >> you have no idea. and speaking of money, a shocking percentage of americans are spending much more than they take in. sound like our government, right? details of this rather distu disturbing story. which group is the biggest offender? you'll find out. stay tunes. at optionsxpress we're all about options trading.
3:47pm
we create easy to use, powerful trading tools for all. look at these streaming charts! they're totally customizable and they let you visualize what might happen next. that's genius! strategies, chains, positions. we put 'em all on one screen! could we make placing a trade any easier? mmmm...could we? open an account today and get a free 13-month e ibd™ subscription when you call 1-888-280-0149 now. optionsxpress by charles schwab.
3:48pm
3:49pm
. all right. listen up, single guys. you can become an instant multimillionaire without winning the lottery. a hong kong billionaire can help
3:50pm
you do it. all you have to do is marry his daughter. but there's only one tiny catch. robert frank explains why this may be a tough deal to get done. robert. >> thanks, maria. i love this story. a hong kong billionaire is offering $65 million to any man able to marry his daughter. now, in most ways, she is the perfect bride. she's beautiful. she's well-educated. she's kind. she's talented. she, well, here's the problem. she prefers women. here's a photo of her. the lovely gigi with her father. she's a graduate of the university of manchester. she's apparently married her female partner of seven years in france. her father said she can do better, or at least more male. he said the money is, quote, an inducement to attract someone who has talent but not the capital to start his own company. gigi has been inundated with officer. more than 200, in fact. she has countless new friends on facebook and twitter and lots of
3:51pm
nude photos, apparently. she's taken it all in stride. she said her dad can't accept how society would view her, but says she's a lucky girl to have such a loving daddy. >> that's amazing. >> i love this story. >> i love this story too. >> from a human standpoint, what father ever approves of the person that his daughter marries, right? i don't know my daughter's watching. >> well, no one is ever good enough. >> but this is a great story on another level as well. this is a father that doesn't want to accept all of this. he's obviously an action-oriented kind of guy, and he's taking action. >> i feel bad for her partner. she must feel, you know -- >> yes, kind of left out. >> insulted. >> probably won't be invited to holiday parties. but his daughter is taking it very well. she's a bit, i think, amused by her father's actions. don't you? >> yeah, i do. >> and not surprised. >> they look like a lovely family. robert, thank you very much. up next, the closing count down. >> also, research in motion out with earn in addition a few
3:52pm
moments. that stock had a pretty good week. is there a turn around coming for the blackberry maker, or is the company still on a downward spiral? we'll find out coming up. and are the ever increasing number of regulations holding back the financial industry? cit ceo john thain is we me today. we'll talk about that plus what he's seeing in the middle market. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles,
3:53pm
3:54pm
like in a special ops mission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account.
3:55pm
about four minutes left in the trading session here. we talked about the revision lower, the gdp this morning. that's not really what set the tone for this market today. it started overnight in china. the shanghai index took off. signs that maybe they're talking about ways to try and shore up their economy, stem the slow growth -- slow, relatively speaking. then that optimism moves to europe, and you'll see this rise in the euro today. that was also helped by the introduction of the spanish budget. it was at noontime the markets
3:56pm
took off. as you know, our markets tend to track the euro to a great deal. peter, are we not paying enough attention to the international influences on our economy and our markets here when we start scratching our heads about why we're going higher? >> well, it's interesting that the risk on, risk off trade worldwide seems to be based on stimulus talk. whether it's central bank of china or the ecb or the fed. certainly china's been making, you know, motions toward more stimulus there. there's large overcapacity in china in copper, in coal. everyone's aware of the stockpiles. everyone stimulus is wonderful and can rally a market near term, but what are the underlying fundamentals? >> i think bill, fundamentals matter. we're going to get the third quarter numbers coming out shortly. i know the central banks have been flooding this market with money. it's been a great boom for equities.
3:57pm
when does the market turn around and say the underlying issues here are still remaining? >> when it's walking like a coyote on the air. we had a 100-point rally. it's 65 now. what happened? >> we'll take it. it's the end of the quarter. that's the underpinning of this rally, i think, in the u.s. china obviously is going to be a major impact. they're the only ones that really haven't gotten involved in the economic stimulus from their government yet. we may see that. that may help fuel the fire. i think it's end of the quarter here. i think that's going to carry us through until monday. >> i don't know if you've heard this yet. if we finish here tomorrow, we'll be positive for the month of september, and we will have been positive for 11 out of the last 12 months in the dow. that hasn't happened since 1959. >> this is a stealth rally, if i've ever seen one. i don't think anyone would know that stat if you didn't bring it up. i certainly didn't know it. equities are where you're going to put your money. >> are you seeing that kind of conviction over and over again
3:58pm
from some of the large institutions? are they still there buying regardless of the price? >> no one i know is buying, but the market keeps going higher. i don't know what it is. that's why it's a stealth market. >> are you buying? >> no. but i will tell you, as i alluded to in the last segment, there are institutions that felt like they needed to chase performance once we broke 1400. that's a big part of the last leg of this rally. >> oil very strong. this was an energy kind of rally today. also, basic materials like gold, also pretty strong. would you buy any of those right now? >> i'm cautious on gold near term just on the technicals. longer term, i think dollar debasement will make gold go higher. because interest rates are so low and there's nowhere else to put your money, as a risky asset, gold is interesting. you can win two ways. >> how about hard assets, away from gold and oil? >> oil, for example, led lower, right? we got down close to 90 when everything else was sort of staying buoyant. i think it's hard to keep oil up
3:59pm
because it's more likely to respond to global fundamentals than gold or the equity market. >> peter, thank you. matt, always good to see you. stay tuned. we have research in motion earnings and john thain an whether he's got cit for sale coming up as the "closing bell" continues with maria bartiromo. see you tomorrow. and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? stocks rallying to post their best day in two weeks, although we are off the highs of the session at the close here. the dow snapping a four-day losing streak. the s&p 500 ending a five-day losing streak. it's been a september to remember for the bulls. can it carry over into october? we've got top strategists weighing in next. we're moments away from research in motion's latest earnings